"But agile is not going to reduce the technology complexity load, which is the root cause of the problem."
This is a quote from Interesting post with a good discussion thread. However, I do think Ted Neward missed the point.
Agile is not a silver bullet and it does not solve all software development industry problems. Agile is about people. It solves many problems in software development process. It addresses business-to-development team communication. It addresses collaboration in a single development team. It addresses organizational problems and constant improvements. It evangelizes simplicity, simplest tools and solutions that work in particular conditions. It changes people's mindset.
Yes, there are horde of new technologies on the market. There are so many cool new programming languages, development platforms, MDA solutions and tools. We are climbing abstraction mountain, rising abstractions layers. How many people write pure C code these days? Do you remember Assembler? DSL is coming (it is already there!) and will add one more abstraction layer on top of OOP. What's next? I don't know. But agile movement will sustain with new technologies. These are orthogonal phenomena: Technology and People.