In Targetprocess there are several more kinds of reports used to track Processing Time and Cycle Time metrics. More on them: Processing Time and Cycle Time Reports
To access this chart, please navigate main (top) menu -> Reports -> Cycle Time Distribution.
You can filter out any entities, just as in the Process Control Chart:
That's how you build this chart for the 3 pts user stories done within the last 180 days. As you can see, there's a 38% probability for such user stories to be completed in 8 days:
How would the forecast look for 1 pt user stories? There we go: it's 94% for 8 days. The difference is huge.
Here's a real-life case. Imagine, you have a deadline. 12 days before a release. You are the Product Owner, and you're talking to your team: “I've promised one important user story to a customer. Can we make it in this release?” The team give their estimate, it’s 3 pts in their opinion. You open the Cycle Time Distribution chart and say: “Well, the probability to complete such a story in 12 days is 45%, so it's unlikely that we deliver on time”.
This conversation is intelligent as it's based on facts and statistics. It’s not a finger-in-the-air estimate. The Product Owner may decide to split the user story, and fit a smaller one to the release out of realistic expectations, as a compromise.
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