Why Agile Estimates Don't Work - Part 1 - Targetprocess - Visual management software
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As you read this headline, many things came to your mind, probably. You might have recalled those many hours of meetings as you tried to come up with a time estimate for a project or for a product release. Or, you might have remembered the planning poker sessions, which were intended as a spot-on pragmatic business activity, but in the long run proved to be nothing else than a child's game, because the estimates attained as a result of planning poker sessions differed 2 or 3 times from what the actual work really took. The sharp question that I want to ask is: how many times did you feel deep inside that when they make you do an estimate (them being managers, or clients, or anyone else in charge), you end up with nothing else but a waste of time, because later in the project you still face the need to explain why your initial estimate proved to be that different from how things actually turned out, and feeling guilty in the process, though probably nothing of it was actually your fault?

Don't get me wrong. My initial intent was pure and well-behaved. I humbly wanted to write an article to sum up techniques for estimation used in agile, describe their pros and cons, and provide people with a single-point reference for all those techniques. However, as I went deeper into the research,  I was astounded. It turned out that there are many more articles and write-ups out there in orthodox agile circles on "How to estimate?" as opposed to "Why estimate at all?" In those few cases, where I saw some attempts at explaining "why?", they stroke me as incongruent and built on some very loose logic. This very fact of the looseness of "why?" puts a big question mark on the validity of the "hows", because the "how" is a product of "why?" or "what?' I've cited this in one of my previous articles, and I'll repeat it one more time, because this axiom is universal, and works for all things life and project management alike: The hows will appear if the what becomes clear.

Let's take the scalpel of pragmatism and dissect the faulty logic behind all things agile estimates.

What is an estimate?

Is it a measure of commitment? Or is it a lazy talk? I tried to find some stats on the actual usefulness of the estimates in story points, and how they've proven themselves valid in the bottomline world of business. I found none. From my own experience, I know that estimates never work. I've seen this in project-by-project software development and in product development. A slightly modified quote from here:

It's impossible to estimate something that is being built for the first time.

We never build the same feature twice.

The only viable example of valid use of estimates that comes to my mind goes as far back as to the early 2000's, when people wanted simple e-commerce web-sites, or dating sites, or something of that kind. Having built a handful of such web-sites, software vendors were more likely to give their clients a realistic estimate of completion, because these web-sites didn't have a heavy baggage of residual debris, such as technical debt, bulky databases, or an octopus-like architecture, which just spreads, rendering futile any attempts to commit to the bottomline "get the sh..t done on time" stuff.

Next, if any attempts at estimating are futile, then why do most companies continue to play this game, which resembles courting, but unlike courting promises no pleasure ahead, only the ever increasing snowball of mess, feeling guilty, unproductive and unaligned with the only goal that matters: get the job done well and on time?


Stay tuned for the answers and even sharper disclosures in the upcoming part 2 of this article.

Related articles:

5 Reasons Why You Should Stop Estimating User Stories

Joy Spring and Estimated Deadlines

2 Meta-Principles for User Interface Writing

UX: Why User Vision Design Matters

Why Agile Estimates Don't Work - Part 2